Theater Betting Episode 17: Order

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Day 16 Postmortem

It looks like B went neutral Yuzu. 

What happened to your comeback arc?


The false prophet got immediately knocked out, huh. 

I feel bad for /u/Turtle-Express.

I shouldn't have doubted the casuals of EN. 

At least B didn't lose. 

Yeah, B neutral isn't that bad. 

Let's just be happy that it's not a B loss. 

A wins are just so bad value-wise because it's only 60 points. 

Which makes people not want to vote A, resulting in A winning a lot more often than the other options. 

That's messed up if you think about it. 

I'll just vote B and sleep on it. 

Maybe I'll change my mind once I crunch the data more, but I kinda doubt it. 

Mr KR score for bets continues to be better than my EN score.

Which is... not hard when you consider our scores are STILL LOWER THAN ALGORITHMS.

Is just voting B really an algorithm?

That's like calling this a random number generator. 

Placing any trust in EN was your first mistake. 

I don't know, A wins feel super predictable now. 

How am I losing to the popular vote of the panel?

I gotta beat Arcus. 

I can't lose to someone who bricked their own run trying to CE stack. 

You should subtract 33k from Arcus and Shuvi's scores because they both lost a run. 

Alright, that makes me feel better about myself.

WTF you can't just do that. 

Arcus is getting bullied out of the panel now. 

Don't hit me when I'm down man. I just lost a run earlier because Sei skill got hidden by the early retreat bug. 


Why not just savescum and wait a bit longer before retreating Suomi?


I'm dumb


Also, is that solo AGS on Uhlans? Your AT4 is raised right?

You should use AT4 for an easier time since I'm pretty sure you have the chips to give her at least 300 pierce. 

I thought AGS gives more CE against Judge since mine is way higher in rarity and stats. 

I know the game says that, but I don't think it's actually true. 

I don't think HOCs contribute to CE. 

Yeah, did you actually test it or is it just a theory?

Test as in, did you try changing AGS and AT4 and see how the actual CE changes?

The CE doesn't change, but it should impact the boss score AFAIK. 

The problem is that we can't actually check this without burning a run to test. 

I guess we'll find out tomorrow if one of us remembers to test it then. 

HOC SLs should impact score, but I'm unsure how much raw HOC CEs translate into them.

Day 17 Bet Brainstorming

Can we just agree that there's no fucking way C wins?

EN won't move from C Chair. 

EN has surprised us before. 

Well, I don't agree. 

I think C has a solid chance of winning. 

The last few times you said that, C still went neutral.

Even with C dipping below 33%, both A and B have to be really close to each other and above C, which is extremely unlikely. 

I told you, these are calculated risks. 

I'm so behind that I need a C win to turn the tables. 

I know that it's probably B, but this is probably the one day that C has a shot at winning. 

Has C ever won from 36.8% the previous day? It has to tank a lot. 

It's happened a bunch of times. 

  1. 36 to 32

  2. 36.6 to 31.8

Huh, I guess it's not as unreasonable as I thought. 

Theater 3 is a great time. 

  1. 37 to 28


  2. Whatever this is. It even happened in 2 different regions. 


That's amazing. I wish I had clairvoyance to see it happen on EN and grab the fat 20k point gain. 

I already knew I was voting C today if we got A < B < C, which happened exactly as I predicted. 

Didn't you say that EN behavior wouldn't change barring some catastrophic event like A quad win?

This is a fact-based observation: steady C into rise in C results in a fall in C.

I really don't think C will win, but A winning vs. C tie is not much of a loss. 

I'm expecting C at least neutral, so it can only ever be 50 points/100 points per drone. 

C neutral is the most likely outcome, but I'm betting on the win. 

Do you think the typical EN voter will go A next?

Given the recent AABB trend, yeah I do. 

A is gonna rise, the last few days is proof that I'm right about the nature of EN voters.

That they are reactive?

They don't read past 2-3 days of voting history and don't read trends or results from old servers.

The average voter will vote C or try to outsmart each other by bluffing and end up losing.

Kira and I are fucking clowns dude, if we win it's gonna be hilarious.

Whim, it's time to join the C chair again; take your rightful seat on the throne.


Not gonna lie, I'll probably actually change my vote to C.

Anyway, B is likely gonna win; B going L-D (Loss-Draw) with a diverging vote on D usually results on B win.

I assume that's gonna happen, which supports C going L-L-D-L into D as well.

There are times when C goes L-L-D-L into W (Win), so might as well gamble it.


I'm already losing pretty hard anyway, and if I turn out to be wrong, at least it's not as big of a throw as when Kira convinced me to go B that day.

Oh yeah, the #1 player ended his win streak. 

B neutral ain't bad though, he only lost like 2k so he's still gonna be #1 I think. 

Maybe I can make a comeback soon. 

Mr. #5 you're too good at dolls frontline, I can never beat you. 

Oh shush. 

I'll probably still be top 20 by the end. There aren't enough days left in Theater for me to lose points from scouting so hard that I drop out of top 100.

On a totally unrelated note, I've rediscovered the old Korean dalao written "Theater 3 Core 8 for Dummies" guide post. 

Look at that P22. 

We're gonna have her by the time Theater 3 happens on EN anyway. Probably. 

Actually all HGs are interchangeable with ones that have equally high firepower-buffing tiles & skills.

The examples make almost no use of P22 shield.

Why is that? Aren't shield HGs OP?

The idea is to kill everything with overwhelming firepower and not rely on gimmicky shielding dolls.

With Taunt Fairy and nice-looking T-type Exoskeleton-wielding handguns, Core 8 in Theater 3 should be pretty easy. 

Unless you use taunt or BGM-71 on utterly wrong targets, you honestly don't run out of charges with all infrastructure upgraded to L3. 

Do note that if you are CE stacking, then this post is likely not for you.

Instead, you would be looking at mixing in different MOD 3 dolls and finding minmaxed comps that can barely kill everything without taking damage. 

Shield fairy helps with SWAP Strikers too. 

Shield + P90 is almost AFK.

Yeah, I like using Shield Fairy on ARSMG against Strikers too.

This post kinda shows you how you can brute force clear striker nodes with RFHG both with and without taunt though. 

EN at the moment doesn't have 5 star AT4 available, but once you have it the entire Theater event becomes several times easier.

Oh yeah, I tested the theory that HOC adds to boss score. 

I didn't gain a single point using a 10-10-10 high rarity AGS over an AT4 with skill levels at 10-1-1. 

Myth busted. 

Everyone having trouble doing solo AGS tank clears should switch to AT4 then. 

Day 17 Bets

Alright, wtf is wrong with your guys' guesses?

It's gonna most likely be A.

Why are there so many B?

Get the hell out of my bed.

This overwhelming majority of votes is almost making me want to pick B instead. 

Getting hit by that fear of missing out huh?

Pretty much. 

I even know what it is and it still feels bad. 

I just used 8ball this time to choose for me. 

This absolves me of any responsibility if it goes wrong; I can just blame Kira instead. 

That's not how this works. 

Have you guys seen the allied Manticores that came with Hunter batch in CN? They're insane. 

Is that a spammable version of beach fairy's skill?

When can I oath Manticores?

Hunter was bait; Manticore is the true waifu.

Time to fail at capturing Manticores like how I fail to capture Aegis units.

How is MICA going to balance anything against these SF mobs? 

The SF Manticore is arguably stronger than literally anything else in the game. 

I hope they just don't, because balancing around those is stupid and makes the game bad for people who don't have them, which is the same issue as balancing around Grape existing.

Basically accept that SF echelons will be an easy button for some content then, and hope devs keep our T-Dolls relevant somehow?

Yep, that's the idea. 

Almost everybody thinks B will win, but will EN surprise us again and drop the panel win rate to below 30% again? I secretly hope that happens, because 8ball told me to vote A and I went for it like an idiot. 

Remember to send all 96 drones available today to your zone of choice (which may or may not be the same as what we picked), and do your Core clears!

Core 8 is daunting, but should still be possible if you follow the teambuilding guide and have decent units/equips/fairies. There are five videos all showing how to clear it, so watch them and see which one works for you!

For endgame players that just want to maximize their points, each day after the ceasefire, you can always find the TL;DR on what zones are optimal to do for that day at the start of the Theater Guide!

Oh, and don't forget to submit the CBT form every day when you investigate in-game!


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About the Author(s)

(AKA Nonotan, Discord Cleista#7481)

Guide writer and editor for Girls' Frontline, and one of the few people who like its gameplay more than the gacha. Got MICA to pay me 8000 gems once. 

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