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Theater Betting Episode 2: Ataxia

Day 1 Postmortem

*speechless*

LMAOOOOO

EN is actually special now, following no pattern of any season 1 Theater on foreign servers :ncdot:

Called it.

Looks like the Theatre Betting predictions were right: "B will win". :pensiverib~1:

Honestly, you guys underestimate how much influence dalao predictions have.

Like, they see everyone voting B, and they avoid B, in addition to all the normal "C chair" and "A for safety" players.

Anyway, this means my gamble of voting C paid off, or at least didn't completely backfire.

rip Ceia

Ceia, I want my points back. I trusted you, and now I got 15 points instead of 80. 

Why am I dead in the cover art?

You're the only one who lost.

Wait a minute...

:suomibottle~1:

The absolute state of Ceia

For day 2, people might reel back from the massive A vote and stop voting for A for the remainder of Theater.

I'm changing my scouting plan. 

Folks in B will change their mind and go C probably.

Bet you people voted for A because it was the least number of clicks due to being the default option :DIE~3:

I'm saying it'll be C now, with B being now ACTUALLY too clever. 

(Unless I'm giving EN too much cleverness credit)

i hope you now understand why I said it's more fun to think of which option will end up losing. 

Look at Day 1. Now you need an entire lab to dump manpower into brainstorming why A lost. 

Readers, make sure your GFL buddies know how the Theater investigation mechanic works. Don't just click an option without reading the tutorial!

Oh, and our maximum investigation drone limit has gone up too thanks to making progress in all three zones! Remember to do this today: 

Day 2 Bet Brainstorming

Let's think of Day 2 and vote whenever we're ready.

i'm still thinking :ribdieinside:

I want to vote A, but I'm not sure how much I'm overestimating EN players. 

A is gonna lose 2 days in a row because A is the default option and people didn't read :YegorNice:

that's mainly the reason im not really liking A now :ribdieinside:

I think about half the players who defaulted A might now understand how this thing works, and vote like normal people.

But even that very conservative estimate assumes half of the defaulters will continue defaulting to option A.

If you want an actual analysis, B will win again tomorrow; the data shows that for the first day the % votes for the zone that won always drops.

Of course, the data also showed that A always won first day so... 🤷

Seems like I was right.

If you're not from the future Yuzu, how did you know it would be B?

:RocketYan: a Rocket never tells their secrets

Day 2 Bets

My vote is in; show us the results Cleis. 

*drumroll*

LMAO

:Cchair:

This is an ominous majority of C votes.

We know that people are defaulting really hard on A, so the gambling is on B or C. 

Here's the thing though, defaulters who didn't read will send only 1 drone instead of 15, so they will matter way less in Day 2 since the percentages are determined by the number of drones sent according to the in-game help. 

ngl, I'm not mad, I'm just very disappointed.

You never know, they might've spam clicked the + during Day 1 thinking

HEY I CAN SEND MORE

>error

OKAY FINE GUESS I SEND ONE DRONE

and today they're like

ALL THE DRONES

but still A

I see ATMG seems to think the same thing.

I think track 9 of Camellia's GALAXY BURST album is a great listen when you're doing Theater.

Oh yeah, I forced Yuzu to explain himself. Let's see what he has to say. 

My actual thoughts on why I was gonna vote for C but ended up voting A for Day 2:

Assume before knowing the result from my initial guess:

  • A - (predicted middle)
  • B - (predicted winner)
  • C - (predicted loser)

Since winner won, people from the loser bracket (A) will attempt to pick the winner (B) since the chances of a winning choice winning again is low.

The winners (B voters) will know this and thus will pick the middle (C).

The neutral voters (C) will decide on either staying with their C chair vote or picking the winner (B).

So:

  • A -> B
  • B -> C
  • C -> C|B

The actual result was flipped from what I initially predicted (which had voters migrating to B and C instead), so the logical answer from the deduction above would be to choose A as it would have the best chance of winning.

Also, this is EN we are talking about, so the large number of players who would have chosen A (since it was the logical choice) is gonna be a factor. Now that A lost in the first round, the casual player will be confused on why they got negative points and will most likely choose B.

Thus B will have the most, C will be the middle and A will be the winner. 

Yo wtf is this big brain shit, I just picked C cause it'd probably go even LOL

I like how you add EN to the equation and it just goes w͔̩̖h̲̙͜a̬̞̖t҉̟̲̼ ̯͇̯t̸̼͚h̞̪͘è ҉̤͖̫f͚̲u̢̫̭c̥̭̣k͇͉͠

My eyes glazed over reading Yuzu's explanation.

:bukoWhenBPComesHome:

Dalao betting is gonna sway votes again, no one gonna vote c now :uzispray:

Would be nice if this becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. 

A lot of this is explained in-game, but people are impatient and skip through everything. 

Most people also ignore the (i) button in-game, resulting in the same question being asked hundreds of times in #gf-theater-help.

It's why I've pretty much given up on trying to predict EN. It's pointless. 

The day 1 results are like an eldritch horror of bad decisions. 

WAIT GUYS

What?

Ah, yes, very good.

Gsh gsh

So Neural Upgrade can upgrade this part too...

:owownom:

I guess that's as much Theater discussion as we're gonna get today out of these horny boneheads. 

While most of the panel picked C this time, there's much more uncertainty compared to the first day!

Remember to send all 15 drones available today to your zone of choice (which may or may not be the same as what we picked) instead of pressing send immediately, because it defaults to only 1 drone!

For endgame players that just want to maximize their points, each day after the ceasefire, you can always find the TL;DR on what zones are optimal to do for that day at the start of the Theater Guide!

Oh, and don't forget to get your daily dose of CBT by submitting this form after you investigate in-game!

Omake

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About the Author(s)

(AKA Nonotan, Discord Cleista#7481)

Guide writer and editor for Girls' Frontline, and one of the few people who like its gameplay more than the gacha. Got MICA to pay me 8000 gems once. 

Send guide suggestions and ideas via DM on Discord, or drop some in the #gf_site_suggestions channel on the Community Discord

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