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Theater Betting Episode 3: Hell Rising

Day 2 Postmortem

WTF?

LET'S GO YUZU

WOOOOO

CLAIRVOYANCE EX BABY

:OhImEN:

pahahahahaha 53.80% went to C

EN galaxy brained, fun

Oh come on, I just woke up from a nightmare where A won by a landslide and C got over 50%...

But yeah, I can't believe EN actually followed our advice on C. SHENANIGANS!

I THOUGHT NO ONE WAS SUPPOSED TO READ THIS!?

Clearly the best solution is for me to like, recommend C again, because it won, so clearly it CANT win again, or CAN it?

...And then secretly vote on A.

blame your long ass column Xecty :pepeLaughing:

Bah, it's not my fault, it's OBVIOUSLY Ceia's fault, telling people how to operate their drone controller thingy so that people voted for things besides A.

No you silly, people that voted A with 1 drone didn't affect the pool, while people that CChaired will put max drones because they know what they're doing. 

No see, I blame you because now they know to :Cchair:

Are we blaming Ceia? ðŸ¤”

Of COURSE we're blaming Ceia!

Yeah, Mr. enough-subscribers-to-rig-theater-singlehandedly, what do you have to say for yourself?

ffs

:awaugery:

Clearly, the solution is to go C again, because it lost hard this time

Thus

CLEARLY PEOPLE WILL STEER CLEAR OF IT

:galaxybrain:

idk what to choose now anymore... most of us got rekt

I'm pretty sure 53.8% is higher than like any KR %?

I looked at the charts again. NO server has ever scouted past the 50% mark. 

EN breaking records again 

:KyaruMaskedClap:

Ceia, I think people just noticed that C gives more points than the rest. 

Yeah... 2 days after it started

Oh god, I knew it.

Stupid C...

On day 1, A lost because the majority of players defaulted to A with 1 drone.

When more drones were deployed, the default A, 1 drone people don't matter anymore. When 15 drones are out, we can finally see where people actually scouted: which is C

Now that we are performing worse than our readers, no one will trust this column anymore, thereby making future results easier to predict by removing this column's effect on the voting results. 

:wokescheme:

"No one will pick C because everything thinks is wrong"

"so I’ll pick C"

:OMEGALUL:

Damn I should just pick the opposite of what I think it is. 

We're just developing an irrational fear of multiple choices.

Here's something for the people who come here to get actual theater advice: 

  1. Reminder that you need to send drones every day
  2. Always smack that - button when selecting how many drones to send away so that you are throwing in the max amount of daily increasing drone numbers. 

Also note that because you get a ton of points [~10k] from the Destroyer node, you may actually earn more points re-running Advanced 3 (even with the -40% penalty) than running Advanced 5, in the event that EN advances stages but doesn't quite have enough progress to unlock the new boss on Advanced 6.

Don't stack all your strongest units in one echelon if you do end up trying to CE stack!

Splitting them up gets you better results because stacking has diminishing returns.

How many extra points does that ~500 of extra CE even translate into?

Probably not much. I have a similar amount of CE and people who just yolo'd without CE stacking still got like 98% of my score. 

 

No, don't be me. Burnt like 14k Combat Reports, and enhancing equipment made me go broke. 

 

This wasn't even close to enough points to make up for what I lost on wrong scouting. 

 

Readers, don't do what we did and waste a ton of resources for negligible point gain!

You can easily rank in the top 15% or even top 5% just by sending normal teams and making sure to bring bonus units, because the base score is extremely high and boss CE only has a very minor effect!

As long as you can clear Core 8 consistently, a high rank is all but guaranteed.

Sample score (with bonus) vs. Hard 3 Destroyer
Sample score vs. Hard 3 Destroyer (~5k CE, with bonus)
Theater CE stack with 7474 CE result score
Sample score vs. Hard 3 Destroyer (7474 CE, with bonus)

Oh, and our maximum investigation drone limit has gone up to 24 now.

It'll keep climbing each day, so even if you investigated wrong early on, it's ok! You'll make it back in no time. 

Sounds like what casinos say to scam you out of all your money. 

Day 3 Bet Brainstorming

So now, are we picking A or B?

Dude, I paced around my room and did push ups while thinking "A or B" for 3 hours. 

I did nothing for those 3 hours except for simulating a 16d chess game against EN in my head. 

What did you end up with?

50-50 A and B.

Ceia is gonna be the only person who goes negative in theater at this rate. 

Ceia's popularity is bringing him down.

You guys should be avoiding what I vote for then. 

Ceia ruined theatre

:pensivelee~1:

literally

I'm going for C.

After THAT MASSIVE DEFEAT, WHO WOULD EVER VOTE FOR C AGAIN!?

Unlike us, Xecty doesn't have the pressure of losing points.

That makes his guess more rational, doesn't it?

I think after the massive blowback from day 1 and day 2, people will either switch back to A again or stick with C.

The highest was like 48% on Theater 1 for older servers. EN is wild. 

Usually wins trade hands between winner (A) and neutral (B) or stay same after a hard loss by an area that isn't A. 

Since A won now, I think A will win again since A votes will move to B. 

I'll have to think a bit more to make a more accurate guess. 

It doesn't help that the win/loss deltas are extremely wide, which is unprecedented for any server. 

What if people think they NEED to scout the same area that they participated in for that day?

I sure hope not. 

Day 3 Bets

I can't believe Kira's dead

emp is truly my brother

I like Whim, man of his word, the only person to actually stick with :Cchair:

Dalao betting panel on suicide watch

I see we've been mindbroken by the day 2 results. 

The day 12 results are like an eldritch horror of bad decisions. 

:OMEGAROLL:

We're fighting against the non-brainlets who know how to send more than 1 drone now. 

Time to take the kiddie gloves off.

C is gonna lose again, since I believe we're either gonna get A<B<C or B will barely beat A. 

Big C loss results in a smaller C loss, and A usually continues to win if A won on a big C loss.

On the other hand, a big C loss with B win results in A winning the next day. 

Imagine using facts and logic to predict what EN will do.

:uwaaGant~1:

I'm just applying some of the game theory I've learned.

Tbh most people don't bluff or double bluff theater. You can see it from the previous results, people slowly start to realize when to bluff as the event goes on though. 

But, I think I have a strong read on A. 

I knew I should've taken microeconomics.

My advice? Hire a mathematician and watch him/her also lose their mind over what option to vote for.

Didn't you pick the same thing as corsage? How'd you manage that? 

Uhh...

...30 minutes ago

Onii-chan, can you vote A for me?

Sure thing.

Yay!

...back to the present

It's a calculated decision I made after a lot of painstaking math. You wouldn't understand. 

We can all see what you put as the reason you know. 

Aw man, let me have my moment!

In all seriousness though, I consulted with my sister because she's the brains at math. 

She told me 'you're killing me right now' but that I should put A or possibly B. 

BIG BRAIN IT

C CHAAIIRRR

I have some weird ass deduction that can be used for the reasoning but it will make EN explode and you probably have to censor most of it from your article Cleista. 

Wanna hear it? 

Go for it. 

WARNING WALL OF TEXT AND NUMBERS AHEAD, KIRA BEWARE

Today I wanted to analyze some [redacted]* from the last two days:

*Note this number is [redacted] count

Day 1: [redacted]: 1 (we can determine how many [redacted] did [redacted] in each zone)

  • A - 8109
  • B - 5104
  • C - 7042

Day 2: [redacted]: 15 (This is where it gets tricky, see if you can catch up)

  • A - 39028
  • B - 46497
  • C - 99590

Since we know how many [redacted] were sent, lets try to guess how many people [redacted] in each zone.

A

39028 / 15 = ~2602 - But this number accounts for the people who knew that you can put in 15. Let's include the casuals

39028 / 2 = ~19514 - Now you may wonder why I put 2 instead of 1, lets also include those cases where people dump the materials first then scouted so they could only deploy 1~2 drones

(2602 + 19514) /2 = ~6963 - We sum up both and average them and we get roughly 6.9K people. My Assumption

B

46497 / 15 = ~3100 - We do the same for B as A so first assume all voted normally.

46497 / 7 = ~6642 - For this case, we assume most people who just blinded voted for A are out of the picture leaving just those who only sent 1~2 drones.

We assume that the amount of people is roughly ~6.6K people +/- 300

C

99590 / 15 = ~6640 -> ~6650

Same as before, I assume people who voted for C knew they could send 15 drones and added around 10 for "random misclicks"

Now we get to the part of :feelsENman: so please bear with me, I has autism.

  • A: From Day 1 -> 2, we see the change of 8109 -> 6963, with a net loss of 1146 people Once again my number, doesn't reflect real numbers in game
  • B: From Day 1 -> 2, we see the change of 5104 -> 6642, with a net gain of 1538 people Once again my number, doesn't reflect real numbers in game
  • C: From Day 1 ->2, we see the change of 7042 -> 6650, with a net loss of 394 people Once again my number, doesn't reflect real numbers in game

Assuming we had the same amount of people who participated Day 1 as in Day 2, those are my assumptions on where people went.

Once we put the data together:

  • A won for Day 2, the voters will tend to go to B. (Logically)
  • B tied for Day 2, voters have the option to stay B or choose the winner A (Logically)
  • C lost for Day 2, so voters tend will to go to A.

However this doesn't cover the 3rd party voter who may potentially affect the EN logic. Since Ceia's video says "Vote for C" and the meme CChair took off, it was hard to debate why C won Day 2 and where that adds up in the equation for Day 3.

Overall I think what will happen is that B will have the most votes, A will tie, and C will have the least.

*Due to all the meme and stuff leaving people broke and unwillingness to trust guidemakers like Ceia

tl;dr Ceia ruined it again

Theater killing my part-time job, thank you MICA

holy FUCK

ok I'm just gonna lie down

Tbh I'd rather trust my nightmares at this point; my nightmare that showed me C getting 50%+ did come true after all.

Time to watch a horror show to enhance the chance of that happening before sleeping.

Now before you think I'm :5Head:, that could have all been a big shitpost. 

TLDR:

I'm just a :rocketpeek:

What do I know?

 

The comeback starts here boys, B all the way

I have to go sleep and then wake up from a nightmare 3 to 4 hours later.

Also my exam results get released soon, so that's another nightmare I have to worry about.

Ceia, just vote on what you get on your exam later.

I'd scream out of pure joy if I got a B or better. 

That's it for the day 3 analysis! Or what barely passes as one...

We've got a 7/12 B majority, but look what happened yesterday with a C plurality! Are these votes even reliable with those reasons being provided? Trust no one, not even yourself. 

Remember to send all 24 drones available today to your zone of choice (which may or may not be the same as what we picked)! If you guess wrong, just guess right later to cancel it out!

For endgame players that just want to maximize their points, each day after the ceasefire, you can always find the TL;DR on what zones are optimal to do for that day at the start of the Theater Guide!

Oh, and don't forget to submit the CBT form every day when you investigate in-game! Here's the histogram of scores after two days: 

About the Author(s)

(AKA Nonotan, Discord Cleista#7481)

Guide writer and editor for Girls' Frontline, and one of the few people who like its gameplay more than the gacha. Got MICA to pay me 8000 gems once. 

Send guide suggestions and ideas via DM on Discord, or drop some in the #gf_site_suggestions channel on the Community Discord

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