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Theater III Betting Episode 4: Brainwashing

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After Action Report: Day 3

Day three
Oh god, I can't believe EN has done this to me. Slowed down my Adv. 4, denied me a Quint-A victory and forced me to CE stack for the same damn fight again.
There goes my loss streak.
I blame the loss to Brekkie and Ceia for hyping A too much - shocking considering Ceia is the C Ghost.
I tried thinking and it didn't work out.

B for Based. 

A is going to lose twice in a row now.

OH NO. MY PREVIOUS A. SHE LOST.

Why are you crying about it? 

I am sad, its raining on my parade.

Here, have a raincoat.
Matt snaps his fingers and a white light appears over the three Ghosts of Theater.
Wait...I HAVE LEGS AGAIN?
Woah, I feel a bit sick to my stomach and dizzy. I might have to learn to walk again.
Oh, nice. I have legs again.

I still lost 1 scouting. Dead account, I'm gonna go make a new one right now.

Chill man.

CEIA, THIS IS A SERIOUS, ELITE GFL E-SPORTS PEAK COMPETITION. 

EN is EN, just roll a die and go along with it. 

I am starting to remember why Theater voting hurt so much. Might actually get more points by construction instead. I am literally slamming my head against a desk now.
Xyn, please. We need your brain, at least slightly, intact for the PNC guides.
I'll just retire after 5 articles and make Nik take over.
CN translators aren't allowed to retire early!
Retirement is 65, Xyn, you will be here for a very long time.

Discussion

Isn't today day 4? Why is EN still on Adv. 3? 

First EN can't defeat a house, next EN can't defeat a few punchy bois. This is getting depressing - actually depressing enough that Matt is able to jump 30% in a single day and another 10% yesterday. 

God bless whoever did Intermediate and brought it above Advanced so that we did not have to change any of our team comps. 

How are people dying to the Gladiators?
They don't even punch that hard. It is like 37 damage. Plus, you can use a single shield HG to completely negate the AoE slam if you needed too.

Advanced went from 8% to 33%, so it's not like nobody did it or anything. 

Advanced 8 might filter EN again somehow. Suddenly, I am not confident that I can win my bet. Is it too late to take it back? 

What even are the enemy stacks in Advanced 8?

*ahem* Check the Theater Teambuilding Guide, Theater III edition, ya know...the one uploaded to Gamepress, Mr. Gamepress Writer-man.

 

Otherwise, it just adds Pyxis turrets in night combat. 

Don't forget Striders, which means EN's favorite RFHG is SOL there. We are going to see a giant wall M14/Grape crash into that Strider and die a painful death. .

You can't just do that to M14....

Even if they use M200, a good half won't understand they need to manually time her skill based on the Striders rotation.
At least there is no way we are in Advanced 3 again tomorrow.
Have we still not figured out what exactly "strong doll" means? I assumed it means higher level and higher link number.

It is higher rarity dolls - 5 and 6 star, Collabs and dolls with Neural Upgrades. Oathing a doll with a MOD helps too. When I CE stacked MosinMOD + KSVKMOD, it was more CE than a Pink/Python/R93 for example. (That team wiped Gladiators just as easily)

With that sort of team, you can probably kill the Gladiators without any HOC or manual skill activation honestly.
My worst enemy is not even the Gladiators. There is this one enemy that is kicking my butt and I am still stuck on.

It's this one. 

 

loading circle

I remember watching Nathan clear Core 8 in Theater 4, he had to reset a billion times due to the Gunner/Gladiator combo. Nathan's PC connection was so bad that the game spent more than half of the run loading...and loading...and loading.
So, what are we voting today?

Using mathematical equations, quantum physics, and this oddly fragrant flower that I found, I can conclude that every Ceia vote is a sign of tragedy. After all, Ceia never won once. I won twice. Ceia happened to vote A today, and A lost. COINCIDENCE? I THINK NOT!

Yes, maybe my votes were inaccurate - just don't vote for it. ;)
You're just voting the opposite of a literal RNG bot. Make your own decisions for once, goddamn.

Look, I was 50-50, okay? It's a perfectly valid way to help me when I am indecisive.

 

Looking at past EN data: 

  • There was only 1 occurrence of B Win, C Neutral, A loss. 
  • This occurred in the last week of EN Theater II. 
  • The next day, B wins again. 
  • There is always a chance of a sneaky C win, but unlikely. 

 

I might be wrong now, but it is still early on. Wait until you start losing scouting during those 96 drone days - if we ever clear Advanced 3. 

I would say that B has a 2/3 chance of winning tomorrow. Statistically in EN, if there is a B flip, and B got approximately 30% of the vote, there is a 66% chance of it ending with a double B win. Although, the sample size is limited with only 3 times where B won with about 30% or more scouts.
EN only data, correct?

Correct. I went through Matt's previous EN data and did some analysis of it. EN doesn't follow foreign logic, so you cannot account for that. (Although JP seems to learn towards following EN patterns) EN has a mind of their own, with a few screws loose in between.

Loose? They've all fallen off by now. All of the propaganda is gonna throw multiple wrenches into whatever this cesspool is anyway.

For foreign, I analyze the median score of each season and the interquartile range to determine when A would stop falling and start rising. It works wonders there. For EN, I can only observe some patterns and make a blind guess on whether A or B wins. No point in doing the foreign method since EN fluctuates way too much. 

You know, there's one good reason to vote C today. Imoko drew art of the office cats and now there is merch for it.

 

cat

Cats are based. Cats >>>> dogs.

Predictions

Day 4 Predictions

I thought ya'll voted B. 

Oh, shoot. Cleista or Matt, can you change my vote today to B? I misclicked. 

Haha, Diggus got scared. My plan to control the panel's votes is going wonderfully!

Conclusion

Brekkie paid yesterday, but I still need that creamy C win. The panel though, has actually not really swayed in the majority since day two. Makes you wonder why we are all camping - anyways. Most of us say A. Let us find out soon enough. 

Do not forget to do BOTH of your runs if you haven't already. Two runs on Advanced 3 for today (since it has bonus and is a boss stage), if you haven't already cleared it. Don't forget to do your daily CBT!

Want to take a look at previous data? You can find my charts for Theater 1, Theater 2 and Theater 3 here! 

Omake + Propaganda + Memes

Omake

Don't forget to send Matt your scouting propaganda on Twitter or Discord (Vote C Fairy in Girls Frontline EN), and we'll show it off right here on this panel! (Or for those of you who have to ask us for his information even thought it is right here...you can email it to [email protected])

from Aelana (Discord)

from Aelana (Discord)

from @alsful (Twitter)

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About the Author(s)

Host of the Theater Betting :OhImEn: Panel :5head:

EN Theater Chart manager

Theater I


Theater II

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