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Theater III Betting Episode 5: Error Margin

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The cursed EN data: 

Foreign data for people who think it applies to EN: 

Thanks to Ysas for the amazing title card! It encapsulates today's EN Theater perfectly. 

After Action Report: Day 4

Day 4 Results
Wait, I didn't vote either.

I see the episode 4 Brainwashing was successful.

Brekkie, this is your fault.
Why would you say that?! We're literally on the same team.

I'M THE ONE CARRYING YOU, MR. GARBAGE C-CHAIR!

A beat B by 0.03%?
Fuck that 0.03% difference man, at least it ain't a B loss.

Day 4 Vote Margin

 A won by 87 drones. That's a margin of 4 people.

I blame Matt for showing my B vote. It swung 4 people.
If you voted B after reading episode 4, congratulations. You are the 0.03%.
This is turning out like later theater seasons from foreign servers, where the margin is so narrow it might as well be a coin toss.
Diggus's theory was almost correct though. C lost as expected.
Aren't these conditions for when "Vote C" becomes a viable choice?
People already lept back onto the C train once.
How the fuck did C get so many votes? What's wrong with people???

What's wrong with me? Why did I vote C?

I can't stop thinking about how 87 is not a multiple of 24.
People aren't sending all their drones AHHHHHHHHHHHH

Discussion

Is CE stacking for Intermediate and Hard identical today (except for advantaged dolls and all that)? I just got home and I don't have time to do all the runs tonight.
I think so?
CE stack is literally not even worth the effort. Just use what you have, save 30 minutes, and you're probably only gonna lose like 5 points anyway.
Is today one of those days where it's not worth it to run the support map?
No, Intermediate 4 with bonus is 7k more than Advanced 6.

Today's advantaged list is cursed.

Day 5 Advantaged Dolls

They're really making us recover Ameli, huh.
You're probably gonna see this list again in Theater 4, have fun.
If I only have 8% Advantaged bonus for Intermediate 4, is it still worth it to do Intermediate 4 + Advanced 6, or should I just do Advanced 6 twice?
Intermediate 4 is like 50% better than Advanced 6 right now, so if you take away 16% it should still be better.
Yeah, I got like 16.8k with 8% bonus for Intermediate 4. Advanced 6 with maxed out bonus % was 12.8k.

I couldn't break 19k...

Day 5 Duck Score

10.3k CE still only gives 19020 points, so it's not like you missed out on much.
Damn, where are y'all finding this CE?
Just oath a doll for 9 more CE.
Wait, PEQs alone are giving me like 2k more CE. This is so rigged.
PEQ everything, even your SGs.
I put 3 green PEQs on my HGs and immediately gained 700 CE.
Where do you think people will scout? I think EN finally learned how Theater works, because most of the CBT participants got it right this time.
It's time for a new game show: "Are you smarter than a panelist?"

The Gamepress team is being left in the dust.

Day 5 Leaderboard

We don't actually know what we're doing. Matt just needed a third team.
The "c" in Hakurai stands for the number of correct guesses.
Do you guys need backup? Take Matt.
Matt is C chairing, I'm not sure I want him.
Jesse is carrying the Dalao team.
Have you seen that man play Pokemon? He knows literally everything I do.

Don't look at Cleista, I'm the one carrying.

Yesterday's vote margin confirmed one thing though: if we influence even one person to vote differently, we have a chance to change the results.
Now go, my minions, spread some propaganda!

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Is this good propaganda?

Hanyang Propaganda

Depends, what's your vote?
Yeah, is your vote the right vote?
I know what the right vote is since I have the foreign theater data now!
It's time to send my dr- wait, I don't have any materials to send drones with.
Time for your daily CE Bloat Torture!
Yes honey...

Predictions

Day 5 Predictions
Panelist Zone Reason
Matt B This is what happened last time. A and B Chicken. No, not (C)hicken. A mouse said C yesterday. Fucked me over. Not today mouse.
Jesse B This is a warm thank you to the anonymous commenter who has consistently viewed and given his thoughts on every episode of Theater Panel Season 3 so far. I appreciate the support, and hope you continue to actively participate in the discussions underneath each new episode.
Brekkie A Hopefully Ceia didn't vote for A
Xyn A Literally gonna give up and just vote for A(rknights) because frankly its a superior game and theres 2 event coming up soon, both which are better than theater.
Mars A [A] cat has spoken.
Red A Lee's ass led me to the correct choice on day 4, may it guide me forward this day as well.
Dahblount A The probability of short A streak to B then back to an A streak is very high.
Kyazuki A This is the end of the line for me, but I keep my word on votin A 5 times in a row. Dunno if I'll stick with doing more A, probably not. All I know is that this worked better than I expected.
Destination A I fucking forgot to send drones yesterday so that's a self-stab. Harakiri. Pwned thyself. Hacked 127.0.0.1.
Soulmuse A There are many dumb reasons I had for this vote but the honest answer is I got no clue and this is just my 'eh sure that seems reasonable' best guess.
Etrikia A i'm running out of A-nswers
Kira B B
Hassium A Duck made me vote.
Furrytomic B B for Backstab :)
Lego B i don't know how i will keep making rngesus jokes for 16 more days
BLT A If I'm going to oath Dorothy if A goes on another 5-win streak, I might as well vote for it.
Gaige B Shoulda bought some more flashbangs so that my B rush won't get scuffed
Ceia PP matt f--ks me every day by showing my vote to the world :(
Hakurai C There comes a point in your life when you need to take a step back and think about your life decisions. Where are you at right now? Where do you want to be? Why do you keep voting C? You need to set goals, like are you voting C to try and win, or is it a matter of memeing? These are the questions that keep me up when writing this.
Coin A :coindrink:
Cleista A I've seen enough of /biz/ to know what EN is going to do today.
Duck A Dorothy is cute, isn't she.
Seres B might barely win lol
Soup B Bread bot said b and no time to thonk
Diggus A Imagine getting filtered by adv 3
Wait, we all voted A?
It could still win, A streak isn't out of the picture yet.
Inb4 A wins anyways.
Don't jinx this, please.
We're so screwed.
I blame my cat.
Why are people voting A? Stop that and vote B for Brekkie instead!
A for Arknights, A superior game.
You're fired.
Can I snap him then?

Conclusion

With such a close result yesterday, it's very surprising that the panel is still leaning so heavily towards A. Perhaps my vote was a mistake...

Do not forget to do BOTH of your runs if you haven't already. One run of Intermediate 4 for the bonus, and one run of Advanced 6. Fortunately, Advanced 6 has a much easier Gladiator/Gunner fight than Advanced 3, and the teams mostly stay the same between today's 2 runs (don't forget to switch out advantaged dolls). After you cast your vote, remember to do your daily CBT!

Want to take a look at previous data? You can find Matt's charts for Theater 1, Theater 2 and Theater 3 here! 

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About the Author(s)

Member of the Theater Betting Panel

GFL Ranking addict

Hanekawa is a cute

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