Arena Incubator Cycle Mechanics
I remember getting a 24 hour epic incubator for the first time in the arena. I thought I had hit the jackpot. I also kept playing for 3 hours straight after that hoping I would get one again since I thought it was a random occurrence. As we now know, (big thanks to Dr. Reebecca and our research team) incubators aren’t actually random, they follow a very specific cycle. This research was conducted very early in the game (summer 2018), but it has not changed since then as far as we can tell.
Basically, there is a cycle to incubators. That means you will always get arena incubators in a specific order every time, even if you speed them up. In order to explain the full rotation, we will break them up into 2 sub-cycles.
Sub-cycle 1
In short, there is first a small cycle where Explorers will be rewarded of the following Incubators in this specific order in repeated cycles:
3 hours > 15 minutes > 3 hours > 3 hours > 8 hours
From what we can tell, this order cannot be affected by continuing to battle even when you have all of your incubator spots full. This order is also not affected by speeding up incubators, opening them out of order, etc.
For more information on how to level up and resources you can get from these incubators check out the links below.
Sub-cycle 2
Second, there would be a bigger cycle where Explorers are rewarded an 8, 12 or 24 hour Incubator every fifth 8 hour Incubator. In other words, after going through 4 complete small cycles, the following one will include either an 8, 12 or 24 hour Incubator replacing the standard 8 hour one depending on what stage you are at in your Sub-cycle 2. 12 and 24 hour Incubators basically replace 8 hour Incubators throughout the cycle at specific times.
This big cycle will follow an 8, 12, 24, 12, 8, 12, 24 pattern, repeating. This explains why we sometimes get SO MANY 8 hours in a row, and why it seems to take forever to get that amazing 24 hour!
The Full Cycle
To give you an example, we have listed what the entire cycle looks like below.
3h > 15m > 3h > 3h > 8h> 3h > 15m > 3h > 3h > 8h > 3h > 15m > 3h > 3h > 8h > 3h > 15m > 3h > 3h > 8h > 3h > 15m > 3h > 3h > 8h > 3h > 15m > 3h > 3h > 8h > 3h > 15m > 3h > 3h > 8h > 3h > 15m > 3h > 3h > 8h > 3h > 15m > 3h > 3h > 8h > 3h > 15m > 3h > 3h > 12h > 3h > 15m > 3h > 3h > 8h > 3h > 15m > 3h > 3h > 8h > 3h > 15m > 3h > 3h > 8h > 3h > 15m > 3h > 3h > 8h > 3h > 15m > 3h > 3h > 24h > 3h > 15m > 3h > 3h > 8h > 3h > 15m > 3h > 3h > 8h > 3h > 15m > 3h > 3h > 8h > 3h > 15m > 3h > 3h > 8h > 3h > 15m > 3h > 3h > 12h >3h > 15m > 3h > 3h > 8h > 3h > 15m > 3h > 3h > 8h > 3h > 15m > 3h > 3h > 8h > 3h > 15m > 3h > 3h > 8h > 3h > 15m > 3h > 3h >8h > 3h > 15m > 3h > 3h > 8h > 3h > 15m > 3h > 3h > 8h > 3h > 15m > 3h > 3h > 8h > 3h > 15m > 3h > 3h > 8h > 3h > 15m > 3h > 3h > 12h > 3h > 15m > 3h > 3h > 8h > 3h > 15m > 3h > 3h > 8h > 3h > 15m > 3h > 3h > 8h > 3h > 15m > 3h > 3h > 8h > 3h > 15m > 3h > 3h > 24h > and so on...
For all you visual people (like me) I created a handy graphic for you:
In short, if we forget about the Sub-cycle 1, the picture gets much clearer:
8h > 8h > 8h > 8h > 8h > 8h > 8h > 8h > 8h > 12h > 8h > 8h > 8h > 8h > 24h > 8h > 8h > 8h > 8h > 12h > and start over.
If you maintain perfect incubating efficiency with no ad viewings or Hard-Cash speed ups, you can expect an Epic Incubator every 15-20 days (depending on your Incubator game style)!
In Conclusion
Our sample has gotten much bigger since the original research was conducted so we are confident that this cycle theory is as close as it gets and that any discrepancies will likely be a result of an error in recording of Incubators, glitches in the game, etc. This is especially helpful to track so you can get an idea of when you will receive one of those coveted 12 and 24 hr incubators. Let us know if you notice any changes with this cycle and make sure to join our discord for more discussion!
