Is there anything to indicate that catch rates are notably lower due to weather bonuses? Also, I recall some time ago people mentioning issues with the curveball registering one excellent throws, has that been resolved or disproved? The one Groudon I personally raided was clear weather and I caught it on 6th or 7th throw, I always curve and GR and don't go for excellents because greats are more reliable.
GamePress
Raid weather boosted or non weather boosted?
Both my failed catches of groudon came from the weather boosted variant. Both at least 11 GR Curve excellent with gold ground medal.
That poses me the question - would I rather raid without a weather boost and get a lower level groudon that's easier to catch and max out if necessary? All I see is 5 levels worth of rare candy and dust, it's quite feasible, OTOH losing out on a perfect groudon that is weather boosted, but may have been caught otherwise, would be quite hard to swallow.
Any opinions?
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Answers
I don't think they are notably lower, but I presume they scale by level similar to regular pokemon.
5 levels shouldn't be a notable difference but a difference nonetheless.
I think the curveball registration is fixed for a while now. I personally can hit excellents very consistently so I go for them. I've only had two failures (out of two) for weather boosted though, so that's not a large sample. I'll give weather boosted a few more goes.
And again, you know that how? All pokemon have a base catch rate, and it is not the actual catch rate, even before accounting for bonuses, because the base catch rate is based on a level 14 pokemon, and the actual catch rate scales up or down by level.
On Gamepress's Groudon page, for example, Groudon's base catch rate is listed as 2%, but in the raid boss catch rate table, the catch rate for a normal, no-curve, no-berry, no-medal throw is listed as 1.67%. This would be consistent with scaling by level of the catch rate, as a level 20 mon would be expected to have a lower catch rate than one at level 14.
The same is true if you look at the catch rates of all other bosses - the minimum catch rate is less than the base catch rate.
So, either Gamepress is correct, or you are, and I'm going with Gamepress unless you can cite a reliable source to the contrary.
Put numbers in a table form and put it on the web is now called FACT?
Please. Gamepress and tehSilphRoad information are client-end analysis, hypothesis that are sometimes data-fitted to be constructed as catch theories. Theories are NOT facts. They are logical, tested to be believed to be correct, but are not 100%-correct facts about the game mechanics - only Niantic developers know.
I don't pretend to know everything about the catch mechanics. But I do know enough to not blindly follow printed charts and text published on the web.
If Gamepress and tehSilphRoad theories are so factual and fool proof, then you would expect every seasoned raider to have 80+% or even 90+% of all legendaries they tried to capture. Most have varied mileage on capture rate, far lower than the 80 to 90+% capture rate, even when they are consistent GRB, curve, Excellent throwers, 90+% of the time. In fact, I just did two Groudon raids back-to-back recently, 12 balls and 11 balls, combined 22 Excellent throws, 1 Great throw, all GRB, curve. Both fled. Things like this seem to happen far more often to me and probably other trainers than these theories suggest.
Just know that the theories have holes. For instance, they do not take into account of the flee rate, or, how the flee rate mechanics is implemented in the boss capture mechanics, where the boss is graphically locked until the last ball is thrown. But nobody in Gamepress or tehSilphRoad ever attempted to explain whether the boss has already been determed to have fled or not, even there are balls remaining.
Theories are NOT facts.
I don't think catching pokemon is a theory. If anything it doesn't even dive much further (if at all) than standard probability theorems (theorem, not theory), doesn't even dive into the juicy bayesian stuff.
You have the data mine (not theory), it tells you what the base catch rates are. You also have data mine of the GR, Regular R, gold medals etc (not theory). Then you apply the binomial expansion (again, not theory, and you technically don't even need the nCr for binomial expansion if you are calculating pr(all success). This is again not theory.
If you really want to do something about it, take two screenshots of the red catch circle, at L20 and L25 Groudon. Then color analyze the red circle to see if they are the same red number.
Non of it matters, in the end.
If there is a Groudon raid and everything shapes up to be a go, then you will do the raid anyway, L25 or L20. That's just how it is. No need to lament on a two-data point extrapolation.
At 5pm Central US time I network errored out of the Boss reward phase, had 6 balls left. Wouldn't let me back in the gym. A level 35 female was battling with us at this gym that has EX raids occasionally...lag network errored her out after we were 65% done beating the boss (we had 6 against solar beam with rainy conditions). Took her raid pass, made her join a new lobby. At least I got my nine rare candy, XP, 500 stardust, and credit for winning at that gym...but some might say: feel fortunate you were even able to throw
You seem to cite everything coming out of theSilphRoad's arse as fact. They are, in fact, just very elaborate theory, sometimes data-fitted to explain observations. Theories are "a coherent group of tested general propositions, commonly regarded as correct, that can be used as principles of explanation and prediction for a class of phenomena."
But, remember boys and girls, theories are NOT facts.
I believed your earlier reply by giving you the benefit of the doubt, with the assumption that you took a source similar to the silph road or TSR itself for your proposition that the catch rates boosted or not, are equal (you didn't quote a source, but I assumed your information was solid). Now by going all out to dismiss the research at TSR, now that's a whole new level.
Scaling by level is a logical assumption- hence my thread in the first place, and has been the case since the advent of pokemon go. ScooterJameson's reply on the capture rate graph not starting at 2% is more evidence. Unless you have other things to show, please do not dismiss this 'theory'.
Your language and the logical rebuttals given by others do not exactly help your case.
Your starting post was a mix of vent and question, a question about whether the weather boost is worthwhile for the assumed reduction in catch rate. My multiple replies to your post are about the catch rate for all practical purposes are the same, and further, made a case about the decision for doing a boss raid does not generally depend on whether it's L20 or L25; it's when the situation, whatever it may be, lends itself to be a go.
People seem to take those published numbers as indicators for their expected performance in capturing legendary boss, and are often times finding their results to be considerably sub-par to the 80+% to 90+ percent the published numbers would have indicated.
I have also pointed out that there are other factors/mechanics not fully understood or taken into account. Thus, it renders the current catch theories as good attempts, but not fool proof. This opinion seem to be counter-current to the hoard of believers of these theories. If you approach this scientifically, you will understand the importance of leaving room for doubt and other possibilities. That's what will spur research and growth.
Now, what I would like to promote, is the idea about understanding the beast RNG better, as in, how is it exactly randomized, and how it factors in the catch mechanics. Also, how the flee mechanics is implemented in the boss capture mechanics. Missing these two critical factors in the currrent capture theories is like ignoring two pink elephants in the room. So, believe all those catch theories all you want. It doesn't really matter.
Am I interested in researching these nuances that I don't control, and that are overshadowed by other determining factors, like landing a tight Excellent throw consistently? No, I just want to enjoy the gameplay in my daily routines.
I agree with you on the point that for all practical purposes the 5 level difference in scaling (if any) will not make or break if you catch the boss or not, but your tone and content in the other posts gave me the impression that you outright rejected that there is any level scaling whatsoever.
My post was not to vent, it was meant to spark a discussion between the tradeoff of the higher level boss (to save dust and candy) vs having a greater chance to capture the boss in the first place. (By your assumption, the high level boss is a no brainer. The alternative hypothesis, that the boss does scale in level, is yet to be proven or be disproved)
I really couldn't care less as the one fled was a 91 at best. If a 96+ (15A) flees with my 11+ GR curve excellent then you'll hear me properly vent here :)
I was lucky enough to catch a 98% Groudon as my 7th catch, though it was a really clutch one at second-to-last-ball!
Here's the way I see it: Catch non-weather boosted until you have a good IV one. After that, catch weather boosted, since the chances of a better IV are lower, and you get the added bonus of having lots of high-powered mons. Also, if, say, you want a second Groudon with a different moveset (DT/SB and MS/E come to mind), it's less to power it up.
