Spawn rate for Unown?
Anyone have any estimates?
I have seen claims of 1 in a million and 1 in 6 millions, but no data to back it up.
I have caught 15.000 pokemons since gen 2. That would mean at most 1 in 67 chance to get one, since I do not use a scanner.
It would require around 115 caught Unown to have a 75% chance of completing the medal. For "scannerless" players the medal is a big joke.
Thanks to this: https://tjmahr.github.io/pokemon-go-unown-simulation/
I know some player who did not use scanner before, but after users reported catches of Unown they also started using.
If Niantic is against scanners the way Unown was introduced was not the best one. Hopefully we get an event soon :-)
Answers
I don't know if someone has made more calculations but I saw a post somewhere in reddit (just a few weeks after gen2 release) and the spawn rate was something crazy, don't trust my memory but the number I remember was around 1/6.000.000.
Anyway I also believe there will be an event at some point, they are just trying to create hype about a mon that has nothing special a part from their 26 different forms, my guess is that an event will come with the Unown together with legendary gen2 "dogs", Entei, Raikou and Suicune.
As the OP pointed out, the only problem with unown is that niantic in parallel introduced a medal for cheaters only. So they actually created an incentive to spoof and track, because unlike other medals which are just very difficult to get, it is 100% certain that no legit player will ever have it (unless some special event occurs).
I understand why you are frustrated by the rarity of Unown OP. It is very rare. TBH, that doesn't bother me one bit and truth be told, I enjoy having such a nearly impossible goal. It at least gives me some hope of finding one. And the odds are relative. The same scanner reports on the Silph Road reported that a useful mon (Tyranitar) was more rare in most of the areas they scanned. My list of things in my area that i would like to catch but are probably as rare or more rare right now are:
Tyranitar
Pupitar
Dragonite
Piloswine
Lapras
Machop family
Aerodactyl
Chansey
Blissey
Heracross is a regional that actually has use that I will never find in the wild.
I know some of those listed above can be found in eggs. That just takes away from the joy I could have had catching a rare one in the wild after uncountable hours of dedicated searching. Some of those I am confident will never spawn here, ever, and they actually have a use. Unown serves its purpose for me in that it has me hunting (albeit with very tempered expectations). I've already scratched most of the above mon off my possibles list. If/when I scratch Unown off I'm at zero.
And I really could not care less what a spoofer has or doesn't. Especially for something that can only check a personal quest box like an Unown.
JMO
Well, I am all-in for distant goals, but I like to feel they are obtainable. I have filled my dex with all except regionals and Unown, got to lvl 40 and have all gold medals except the "tiny rat" (on track to get it in the summer 2019, rats are rare here :-). Omastar is the only gen 1 mon I have left to catch in the wild and I am looking forward to find one :-)
I like to have something to hunt for, but Unown does not fill that slot, it is just too rare. I do not get an urge to hunt for one (like I do for Omastar), so it feels like a wasted mon to me, just like unobtainable regionals.
When that is said the chance to get an Unown in my area is laughable. With scanners it has been sighted only twice, in rather remote areas, in the middle of the night. With the current spawn rate someone who caught every single one spawning in this town would have to work for 10 years to get the medal. That is just stupid if you ask me :-)
I understand that and it even makes some sense. My hope is that there are more mons of this rarity. In that way although Unown by itself is very rare when there are 10 or 20 of similar rarity it will not be next to impossible to find something.
With all this talk of legendaries and the like being big city event exclusive and other stuff like that I just hold out little hope that the hunting aspect for regular players will be really enriching in any way unless you are in a big city or cheat etc. My hope for an Unown is small but hell at least it is something.
Actually much longer than that!
For the first 10-15 it is easy to get a new one every time. But the last 5 are actually those who will take the majority of the total time. For the last one it is only 1/26 chance to get the right one. As I wrote in my first post it takes around 115 Unown to get 75% chance of getting the medal (95 for a 50% chance).
I wish you the best of luck to complete it!
