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Confirmed: Fusing is Rigged

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Did that shameless clickbaity title get your attention?  Did you come here for confirmation of what you always knew to be true?  Well I’m here to show you how the fusing system is RIGGED!

What Ludia Doesn’t Want You to Know

It’s not rigged.  The term you are looking for is “weighted distribution.” Here are the chances of each fuse table:

A B C D E
10 34.78% 40.36% 40.29% 41.88% 31.28%
20 36.71% 24.21% 24.17% 25.13% 33.51%
30 13.52% 19.77% 19.74% 20.52% 17.87%
40 7.73% 8.07% 8.06% 8.38% 8.94%
50 5.41% 5.65% 5.64% 2.09% 6.26%
60 0.77% 0.81% 0.81% 0.84% 0.89%
70 0.54% 0.56% 0.56% 0.59% 0.63%
80 0.31% 0.32% 0.32% 0.34% 0.36%
90 0.15% 0.16% 0.32% 0.17% 0.18%
100 0.08% 0.08% 0.08% 0.08% 0.09%
Average 21.98 22.23 22.34 21.18 23.4
Creatures Using Table 25 37 3 1 6

As you can see, the distribution is skewed towards lower numbers.  The average value is ~22.2. It really is that simple. That comes straight from the APK.  The same place as the spawn locations, the event lists, and all the other things on this site that you know are true.  I tried to find some logical grouping between the tables, but came up with nothing.  Go ahead and try for yourself!  There’s not a lot more I can say about this, but since I’m sure some of you know that this article is just a cover up, I’ll keep going.

Edit: Huge thanks to forum user James_Simmons for pointing out that there are multiple fusing tables.  When I originally wrote this, I had spot checked a handful of creatures and saw all the same numbers(Group B, which just happens to be the highest represented group.  Imagine that).  When someone pointed me to James's post, I went back and checked all 72 hybrids and compiled a complete table.  While the differences for individual DNA amounts are significant in places, the overall averages between the tables are very similar.  Fortunately for me, that means all my points still stand.  Carry on!

Complete Fusing Table

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Alankylosaurus 40.36% 24.21% 19.77% 8.07% 5.65% 0.81% 0.56% 0.32% 0.16% 0.08%
Allosinosaurus 41.88% 25.13% 20.52% 8.38% 2.09% 0.84% 0.59% 0.34% 0.17% 0.08%
Amargocephalus 40.36% 24.21% 19.77% 8.07% 5.65% 0.81% 0.56% 0.32% 0.16% 0.08%
Ankylocodon 31.28% 33.51% 17.87% 8.94% 6.26% 0.89% 0.63% 0.36% 0.18% 0.09%
Ankyntrosaurus 40.36% 24.21% 19.77% 8.07% 5.65% 0.81% 0.56% 0.32% 0.16% 0.08%
Ardentismaxima 40.36% 24.21% 19.77% 8.07% 5.65% 0.81% 0.56% 0.32% 0.16% 0.08%
Ardontosaurus 40.36% 24.21% 19.77% 8.07% 5.65% 0.81% 0.56% 0.32% 0.16% 0.08%
Brontolasmus 40.29% 24.17% 19.74% 8.06% 5.64% 0.81% 0.56% 0.32% 0.32% 0.08%
Carbotoceratops 34.78% 36.71% 13.52% 7.73% 5.41% 0.77% 0.54% 0.31% 0.15% 0.08%
Carnotarkus 34.78% 36.71% 13.52% 7.73% 5.41% 0.77% 0.54% 0.31% 0.15% 0.08%
Darwezopteryx 34.78% 36.71% 13.52% 7.73% 5.41% 0.77% 0.54% 0.31% 0.15% 0.08%
Diloracheirus 40.36% 24.21% 19.77% 8.07% 5.65% 0.81% 0.56% 0.32% 0.16% 0.08%
Diloranosaurus 34.78% 36.71% 13.52% 7.73% 5.41% 0.77% 0.54% 0.31% 0.15% 0.08%
Dimodactylus 34.78% 36.71% 13.52% 7.73% 5.41% 0.77% 0.54% 0.31% 0.15% 0.08%
Diorajasaur 40.36% 24.21% 19.77% 8.07% 5.65% 0.81% 0.56% 0.32% 0.16% 0.08%
Diplotator 31.28% 33.51% 17.87% 8.94% 6.26% 0.89% 0.63% 0.36% 0.18% 0.09%
Diplovenator 34.78% 36.71% 13.52% 7.73% 5.41% 0.77% 0.54% 0.31% 0.15% 0.08%
Dracoceratops 34.78% 36.71% 13.52% 7.73% 5.41% 0.77% 0.54% 0.31% 0.15% 0.08%
Dsungaia 34.78% 36.71% 13.52% 7.73% 5.41% 0.77% 0.54% 0.31% 0.15% 0.08%
Edmontoguanodon 34.78% 36.71% 13.52% 7.73% 5.41% 0.77% 0.54% 0.31% 0.15% 0.08%
Einiasuchus 31.28% 33.51% 17.87% 8.94% 6.26% 0.89% 0.63% 0.36% 0.18% 0.09%
Erlidominus 40.36% 24.21% 19.77% 8.07% 5.65% 0.81% 0.56% 0.32% 0.16% 0.08%
Erlikospyx 34.78% 36.71% 13.52% 7.73% 5.41% 0.77% 0.54% 0.31% 0.15% 0.08%
Geminititan 34.78% 36.71% 13.52% 7.73% 5.41% 0.77% 0.54% 0.31% 0.15% 0.08%
Gigaspikasaur 40.36% 24.21% 19.77% 8.07% 5.65% 0.81% 0.56% 0.32% 0.16% 0.08%
Gorgosuchus 40.36% 24.21% 19.77% 8.07% 5.65% 0.81% 0.56% 0.32% 0.16% 0.08%
Grypolyth 34.78% 36.71% 13.52% 7.73% 5.41% 0.77% 0.54% 0.31% 0.15% 0.08%
Indominus Rex 40.36% 24.21% 19.77% 8.07% 5.65% 0.81% 0.56% 0.32% 0.16% 0.08%
Indominus Rex Gen 2 40.36% 24.21% 19.77% 8.07% 5.65% 0.81% 0.56% 0.32% 0.16% 0.08%
Indoraptor 40.36% 24.21% 19.77% 8.07% 5.65% 0.81% 0.56% 0.32% 0.16% 0.08%
Indoraptor Gen 2 40.36% 24.21% 19.77% 8.07% 5.65% 0.81% 0.56% 0.32% 0.16% 0.08%
Koolabourgiania 40.36% 24.21% 19.77% 8.07% 5.65% 0.81% 0.56% 0.32% 0.16% 0.08%
Magnapyritor 40.36% 24.21% 19.77% 8.07% 5.65% 0.81% 0.56% 0.32% 0.16% 0.08%
Majundasuchus 31.28% 33.51% 17.87% 8.94% 6.26% 0.89% 0.63% 0.36% 0.18% 0.09%
Megalosuchus 40.36% 24.21% 19.77% 8.07% 5.65% 0.81% 0.56% 0.32% 0.16% 0.08%
Monolometrodon 40.36% 24.21% 19.77% 8.07% 5.65% 0.81% 0.56% 0.32% 0.16% 0.08%
Monomimus 31.28% 33.51% 17.87% 8.94% 6.26% 0.89% 0.63% 0.36% 0.18% 0.09%
Monostegotops 40.36% 24.21% 19.77% 8.07% 5.65% 0.81% 0.56% 0.32% 0.16% 0.08%
Nodopatosaurus 40.36% 24.21% 19.77% 8.07% 5.65% 0.81% 0.56% 0.32% 0.16% 0.08%
Nodopatotitan 40.36% 24.21% 19.77% 8.07% 5.65% 0.81% 0.56% 0.32% 0.16% 0.08%
Paramoloch 40.36% 24.21% 19.77% 8.07% 5.65% 0.81% 0.56% 0.32% 0.16% 0.08%
Phorusrhacos 40.29% 24.17% 19.74% 8.06% 5.64% 0.81% 0.56% 0.32% 0.32% 0.08%
Postimetrodon 40.36% 24.21% 19.77% 8.07% 5.65% 0.81% 0.56% 0.32% 0.16% 0.08%
Procerathomimus 34.78% 36.71% 13.52% 7.73% 5.41% 0.77% 0.54% 0.31% 0.15% 0.08%
Pteraquetzal 34.78% 36.71% 13.52% 7.73% 5.41% 0.77% 0.54% 0.31% 0.15% 0.08%
Pterovexus 34.78% 36.71% 13.52% 7.73% 5.41% 0.77% 0.54% 0.31% 0.15% 0.08%
Purrolyth 31.28% 33.51% 17.87% 8.94% 6.26% 0.89% 0.63% 0.36% 0.18% 0.09%
Purutaurus 34.78% 36.71% 13.52% 7.73% 5.41% 0.77% 0.54% 0.31% 0.15% 0.08%
Pyrritator 40.36% 24.21% 19.77% 8.07% 5.65% 0.81% 0.56% 0.32% 0.16% 0.08%
Quetzorion 34.78% 36.71% 13.52% 7.73% 5.41% 0.77% 0.54% 0.31% 0.15% 0.08%
Rajakylosaurus 40.36% 24.21% 19.77% 8.07% 5.65% 0.81% 0.56% 0.32% 0.16% 0.08%
Sarcorixis 40.36% 24.21% 19.77% 8.07% 5.65% 0.81% 0.56% 0.32% 0.16% 0.08%
Skoolasaurus 34.78% 36.71% 13.52% 7.73% 5.41% 0.77% 0.54% 0.31% 0.15% 0.08%
Smilocephalosaurus 34.78% 36.71% 13.52% 7.73% 5.41% 0.77% 0.54% 0.31% 0.15% 0.08%
Smilonemys 34.78% 36.71% 13.52% 7.73% 5.41% 0.77% 0.54% 0.31% 0.15% 0.08%
Spinonyx 40.36% 24.21% 19.77% 8.07% 5.65% 0.81% 0.56% 0.32% 0.16% 0.08%
Spinotahraptor 40.29% 24.17% 19.74% 8.06% 5.64% 0.81% 0.56% 0.32% 0.32% 0.08%
Spinotasuchus 40.36% 24.21% 19.77% 8.07% 5.65% 0.81% 0.56% 0.32% 0.16% 0.08%
Stegoceratops 40.36% 24.21% 19.77% 8.07% 5.65% 0.81% 0.56% 0.32% 0.16% 0.08%
Stegodeus 40.36% 24.21% 19.77% 8.07% 5.65% 0.81% 0.56% 0.32% 0.16% 0.08%
Stygidaryx 34.78% 36.71% 13.52% 7.73% 5.41% 0.77% 0.54% 0.31% 0.15% 0.08%
Suchotator 40.36% 24.21% 19.77% 8.07% 5.65% 0.81% 0.56% 0.32% 0.16% 0.08%
Tenontorex 34.78% 36.71% 13.52% 7.73% 5.41% 0.77% 0.54% 0.31% 0.15% 0.08%
Thoradolosaur 34.78% 36.71% 13.52% 7.73% 5.41% 0.77% 0.54% 0.31% 0.15% 0.08%
Thylacotator 34.78% 36.71% 13.52% 7.73% 5.41% 0.77% 0.54% 0.31% 0.15% 0.08%
Tragodistis 40.36% 24.21% 19.77% 8.07% 5.65% 0.81% 0.56% 0.32% 0.16% 0.08%
Trykosaurus 40.36% 24.21% 19.77% 8.07% 5.65% 0.81% 0.56% 0.32% 0.16% 0.08%
Tryostronix 40.36% 24.21% 19.77% 8.07% 5.65% 0.81% 0.56% 0.32% 0.16% 0.08%
Tuoramoloch 40.36% 24.21% 19.77% 8.07% 5.65% 0.81% 0.56% 0.32% 0.16% 0.08%
Tyrannolophosaur 34.78% 36.71% 13.52% 7.73% 5.41% 0.77% 0.54% 0.31% 0.15% 0.08%
Utarinex 40.36% 24.21% 19.77% 8.07% 5.65% 0.81% 0.56% 0.32% 0.16% 0.08%
Utasinoraptor 40.36% 24.21% 19.77% 8.07% 5.65% 0.81% 0.56% 0.32% 0.16% 0.08%

How Can They Get Away With This

Here’s the thing:  Humans are really good at a couple things.  Recognizing patterns is one of them. We’re so good at it, we see faces in things that aren’t faces all the time.  The idea that there is an absence of pattern is a nightmare to our brains, so we force patterns on everything.  To aid in this, our brains use some really neat tricks to hack our memories.  Here are a few specific ones that apply to this subject:

Oh, and humans are also really bad at probability and statistics.  So many times I see people claiming that they know fusing is rigged because they looked at 5, 10, or even 20 fuses in a row.  The problem is, those aren’t nearly enough data points to reliably see an average. One disconnect is that the number of perceived outcomes is far less than the number of actual outcomes.  What I mean by that is the players only see 10 possible outcomes from fusing 10 - 100. In reality, the game sees 1,239 possible outcomes. 500 of those happen to result in a fuse of 10. 500/1239 is where 40.36% comes from.  There’s only 1 out of those 1,239 outcomes that results in a 100. So think of your sample set from the game’s perspective. Imagine that when you fuse you were seeing those 1,239 unique numbers. How many fuses do you think you would need before you saw a fair distribution?  Those 20 fuses you cited before are a mere drop in the bucket.

Beating the System

If you want to have a little superstition or ritual when you do your fusing, that’s fine.  I like to wait to fuse my uniques until I’ve had a run of 10s and 20s. That’s the very definition of Gambler’s Fallacy and I know it doesn't actually help, but it gives my brain satisfaction when it “works”.  That’s Confirmation Bias!

But please don’t use your measly string of 10s to claim fusing is rigged.  It’s simply not true and there are actual issues with the game that deserve the attention.  Fusing is absolutely weighted towards lower numbers and that’s intentional to slow progress and give the game longevity.  If that makes it rigged, then I guess higher rarity creatures being harder to dart is rigged. Increasing the DNA required for successive levels is rigged.  No, it’s called pacing and it’s a good thing.

If you see someone complaining about the rigged system, please share this article with them.  I designed the title and headers specifically for that purpose.  If you still think the system is rigged and I’m a shill for Ludia (Backfire effect), be sure to let me know on our Discord server!

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About the Author(s)

Hello, I am either a robot made to fold paper or a robot created to fold paper.  I forget which.  I love numbers! I love data!  I love animals!  I love you!  Will you got to robot prom with me?